Spring 2019 brought on more rain than usual in the Midwest; and instead of planting seed, growers were stuck weighing their options. Forced to wait for dryer weather, many producers of row crops like wheat, corn and soybean either planted late or not at all. While many farmers decided to claim prevented planting, those who did choose to seed are finally seeing the results. The USDA Crop Progress Report, released on August 5, 2019, states that corn crops at the silking stage are 21 percent behind the average, with corn in the dough stage at 19 percent behind. As for soybeans, blooming crops are behind by 15 percent and setting pods are behind 26 percent. Winter wheat was harvested at a 10 percent decrease from last year. Industries beyond agriculture may also feel the implications of the reduction in harvest rates this season.
MASSIVE INSURANCE CLAIMS
With unfavorable weather conditions, growers were left with limited choices: plant crops in danger of continued rainfall or an early frost, or leave the land bare and take a full prevented-planting payment. Most insurance companies provide coverage for floods, excess precipitation, and other conditions that prevent seeding, as stated by USDA’s Risk Management Agency. With 50 percent of total corn crop unplanted this year, growers across the country took advantage of these policies.
This is not the first time that massive insurance claims took precedence over crop profit. Growers faced a similar problem in 2013, according to agricultural economist David Widmar at Agricultural Economic Insights. With previous years in consideration, Widmar anticipates a minimum of 5 million prevent-plant acres. The effect this large number of unplanted corn, wheat and soybean crops will have on ag-dependent industries is still to be determined.
YOUNG CROPS WEAKENED BY DISEASE
While many growers did manage to get seed into the ground, the health of these row crops is still in jeopardy. As the summer progresses, the weather gets hotter and drier — typically ideal conditions for the development of certain diseases and pests. Normally at this point, crops are at an older, stronger stage — and therefore better able to withstand infection. The danger this year is that late-planted corn crops may be too young when hot-weather diseases like southern rust and gray leaf spot hit. Pest populations multiply quickly in the heat, and emerging wheat curl and brown wheat mites may overcome under-developed wheat stalks.
On the other hand, disease-carrying nematodes that develop early in the season and reproduce on crop roots have less time to inflict damage this year, according to the University of Illinois Extension. With the timeline pushed back, row crops are avoiding old concerns but confronting new ones.
SEED FOR NEXT YEAR
Unpredictable weather this year may lead to continued implications in the years to come. Late-planted crops at crucial reproductive stages are threatened by heat, dryness and early frost. These dangers have led corn growers to turn to shorter-season maturity hybrid seed, according to Emily Unglesbee at Progressive Farmer DTN. The supply of these seed groups for next year is now limited, and growers can only hope the weather will be favorable enough to plant the ample full-season corn crop hybrids next year.
As for soybeans, these seeds are rarely carried over from one season to the next. Soybean seed companies prepare for unpredictable planting and tend to overproduce each year; therefore, a soybean shortage is not anticipated for 2020.
INCREASED COW-CALF RETURNS
Late planting is an especially tough decision for row crop growers to make, but the consequences impact all industries. The livestock market in particular had a direct hit this year due to a decrease in food supply. Previously, cow-calf returns were expected to have a positive trend in 2019 and 2020, but calf prices were raised to reflect season average corn prices, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center. A 3 percent decrease relative to last year in steer and heifer calf prices is now expected in 2019. Due to this, adjustments in 2020 are predicted to be lowered by $13 per head. However, some forecasters are still hopeful for positive adjustments in the next year.
While late planting brings several concerning implications, it’s nothing most growers haven’t dealt with before. Widmar found that during the planting hardships of 2013, final national average yields were behind by only two bushels per acre. Many growers are hoping for a similar outcome for the 2019 harvest. For more information on how to maximize the potential of your crops, contact your local UPL sales representative.
